US Dollar/IQ Dinar Currency Exchange Rates Time Series Forecasting Using ARIMA Model

  • Parzhin A. Mohammed Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2998-9871
  • Sami A. Obed Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2866-5886
  • Israa M. Ali Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9642-4673
  • Dler H. Kadir 1 Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq. 2 Department of Business Administration, Cihan University-Erbil, Iraq http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5196-4457
Keywords: Exchange rate forecasting, US Dollar/IQ Dinar, time-series analysis, autoregressive integrated moving average model

Abstract

The use of currency exchange estimation as a tool for economic planning is being researched as a technique for gaining economic stability. The main purpose of this study is to use the ARIMA model to forecast monthly US dollar and IQ dinar exchange rates. The information was gathered from January 2010 to December 2020. We got the information from the website (sa.investing.com). The minimum value of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and the mean absolute error are used to select the optimal model (MAE). ARIMA was found to be the best model for the US Dollar/IQ Dinar series (2, 1,0). This is the forecasted meaning for the future of this exchange rate time series, which indicates a perpetual increase continuously in the next two years. Statgraphics version 15 was the statistical software package utilized to complete this project.

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Author Biographies

Parzhin A. Mohammed, Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq.

I was awarded a B.Sc. from the University of Salahaddin in College of Administration & Economics  \ Statistics Department in 2012. I also received a M.Sc. degree in applied statistics at Salahaddin University in 2016. I am an assistant Lecture In the Department of statistics.

Sami A. Obed, Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq.

I graduated from Salahaddin University – Erbil in 2013  College of Administration & Economics  \ Statistics Department  from 2013 to 2016 worked  Assistant Researcher in Statistics Department . In 2019I have earned master's degree in the Department of Statistics college of Administration and Economy, University of Salahaddin and through these years ( 2020-2021) I studied the third stage students Time series at the Department of  Economics, and, so far, I am working as an assistant teacher in the Department of Statistics

Israa M. Ali, Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq.

I was awarded a B.Sc. from the University of Salahaddin in College of Administration & Economics \ Statistics Department in 2013. I also received a M.Sc. degree in applied statistics at Salahaddin University in 2016. I am a Lecturer In the Department of Statistical & Informatics.

Dler H. Kadir, 1 Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq. 2 Department of Business Administration, Cihan University-Erbil, Iraq

I was awarded a B.Sc. in Statistics from the University of Salahaddin in 2002. I also received a M.Sc. degree in applied statistics at Sulaymaniyah University in 2007. I was awarded a PhD from Sheffield University in 2018. My research interest in Bayesian inference, MCMC, Statistical Modeling, Quality control charts and Time series analysis

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Published
2022-02-10
How to Cite
1.
Mohammed P, Obed S, Ali I, Kadir D. US Dollar/IQ Dinar Currency Exchange Rates Time Series Forecasting Using ARIMA Model. cuesj [Internet]. 10Feb.2022 [cited 28May2022];6(1):12-9. Available from: https://journals.cihanuniversity.edu.iq/index.php/cuesj/article/view/547
Section
Research Article