The Estimation of (Covid-19) Cases in Kurdistan Region Using Nelson Aalen Estimator

  • Sami A. Obed Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2866-5886
  • Parzhin A. Mohammed Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq. https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2998-9871
  • Dler H. Kadir Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq; (2) Department of Business Administration, Cihan University-Erbil, Iraq http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5196-4457
DOI: https://doi.org/10.24086/cuesj.v5n2y2021.pp24-31
Keywords: Estimator, Survival Analysis, Covied-19, Nelson Allen Estimator, Death

Abstract

It is described how the Nelson–Aalen estimator may be used to control the rate of a nonparametric estimate of the cumulative hazard rate function based on right censored as well as left condensed survival data, furthermore how the Nelson–Aalen estimator can be utilized to estimate various amounts. This technique is mostly applied to survival data and product quality data similar to the incorporated relative mortality in a multiplicative model with outer rates and the cumulative infection rate in a straightforward epidemic model. It is shown that tallying measures produce a structure that permits to a brought together treatment of all these different conditions, and the main little and massive sample properties of the assessor are summarized. This estimator is a weighted average of the Nelson-Aalen reliability estimates over two time periods. The suggested estimator's suitability and utility in model selection are reviewed. And a real-world dataset is evaluated to demonstrate the proposed estimator's suitability and utility. This work proposes a simple and nearly unbiased estimator to fill this gap. The information was gathered from the Ministry of Health's website between October 1, 2020, and February 28, 2021. The results of the Nelson Allen Estimator demonstrated that the odds of surviving were higher during a short period of time after being exposed to the virus. As time passes, the possibilities become slimmer. The closer the estimate comes to value 1 from 0.5 upward, the greater the chances of surviving the infection.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

Author Biographies

Sami A. Obed, Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region - F.R. Iraq

I graduated from Salahaddin University – Erbil in 2013  College of Administration & Economics  \ Statistics Department  from 2013 to 2016 worked  Assistant Researcher in Statistics Department . In 2019I have earned master's degree in the Department of Statistics college of Administration and Economy, University of Salahaddin and through these years ( 2020-2021) I studied the third stage students Time series at the Department of  Economics, and, so far, I am working as an assistant teacher in the Department of Statistics

Parzhin A. Mohammed, Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq.

I was awarded a B.Sc. from the University of Salahaddin in College of Administration & Economics \ Statistics Department in 2012. I also received a M.Sc. degree in applied statistics at Salahaddin University in 2016. I am an assistant Lecture in the Department of statistics.

Dler H. Kadir, Department of Statistics, College of Administration and Economics, Salahaddin University-Erbil, Kurdistan Region, Iraq; (2) Department of Business Administration, Cihan University-Erbil, Iraq

I was awarded a B.Sc. in Statistics from the University of Salahaddin in 2002. I also received a M.Sc. degree in applied statistics at Sulaymaniyah University in 2007. I was awarded a PhD from Sheffield University in 2018. My research interest in Bayesian inference, MCMC, Statistical Modeling, Quality control charts and Time series analysis

References

D. Abbas. Analysis of breast cancer data using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Journal of Kufa for Mathematics and Computer, vol. 1, no. 6, pp. 7-14, 2012.

T. D.Bluhmki. The wild bootstrap for multivariate Nelson-Aalen estimators. Lifetime Data Analysis, vol. 25, no. 1, pp. 97-127, 2019.

R. L. Cao. Presmoothed Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen estimators. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, vol. 17, no. 1, pp. 31-56, 2005.

C. A. El-Nouty. The presmoothed Nelson-Aalen estimator in the competing risk model. Communications in Statistics-Theory and Methods, vol. 33, no. 1, pp. 135-151, 2005.

D. A. Luo. Bias and mean-square error for the Kaplan-Meier and Nelson-Aalen estimators. Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, vol. 3, no. 1, pp. 37-51, 1993.

R. A. Jiang. A bias-corrected Nelson-Aalen estimator. In: IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering. Vol. 1043. Changsha: IOP Publishing, p. 022013, 2021.

A. A. Winnett. Adjusted Nelson-Aalen estimates with retrospective matching. Journal of the American Statistical Association, vol. 97, no. 457, pp. 245-256, 2002.

A. S. Rossa. The Nelson-Aalen and Kaplan-Meier estimators under a sequential sampling scheme. Communications in Statistics Theory and Methods, vol. 38, no. 16-17, pp. 3077-3098, 2009.

H. A. Zhang. On Nelson-Aalen type estimation in the partial Koziol-Green model. Statistics, vol. 44, no. 5, pp. 455-465, 2010

Published
2021-09-30
How to Cite
1.
Obed S, Mohammed P, Kadir D. The Estimation of (Covid-19) Cases in Kurdistan Region Using Nelson Aalen Estimator. cuesj [Internet]. 30Sep.2021 [cited 12Oct.2024];5(2):24-1. Available from: https://journals.cihanuniversity.edu.iq/index.php/cuesj/article/view/448
Issue
Vol 5 No 2 (2021)
Section
Research Article

Copyright (c) 2021 Sami A. Obed, Parzhin A. Mohammed, Dler H. kadir

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.

Authors who publish with this journal agree to the following terms:
1. Authors retain copyright and grant the journal right of first publication with the work simultaneously licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution License [CC BY-NC-ND 4.0] that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgment of the work's authorship and initial publication in this journal.
2. Authors are able to enter into separate, additional contractual arrangements for the non-exclusive distribution of the journal's published version of the work (e.g., post it to an institutional repository or publish it in a book), with an acknowledgment of its initial publication in this journal.
3. Authors are permitted and encouraged to post their work online (e.g., in institutional repositories or on their website) prior to and during the submission process, as it can lead to productive exchanges, as well as earlier and greater citation of published work (See The Effect of Open Access).